Ridge of high pressure to build east of NZ on Monday

A ridge of high pressure should build east of New Zealand during Monday, with a northeast flow over most of the country.

Late Tuesday and Wednesday, a northerly airstream is expected to spread over the country ahead of a complex trough of low pressure which should move over New Zealand during Thursday, followed by a westerly flow.

There is a moderate risk of heavy rain reaching warning levels over Fiordland and south Westland during Wednesday, with low risk for Nelson late Wednesday and through Thursday. There is also low confidence of rainfall amounts approaching warning criteria in Bay of Plenty during Thursday.

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